Riverside 1–3 Kingborough Lions: Result & Stats

Riverside

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Kingborough Lions

6/14/2025

Tasmania NPL · Round 10Windsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Riverside22%

×Draw18%

Kingborough Lions60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RiversideExpected goals in this matchKingborough Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

2.79

Riverside

1.67

Kingborough Lions

2.79

Kingborough Lions creates 67% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 58 away

1.44

creates per match

2.62

2.96

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Riverside

1.44

Kingborough Lions

2.62

allows per match

Riverside

2.96

Kingborough Lions

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Riverside+0.00on par

Kingborough Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riverside ↓

Kingborough Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Riverside or draw

40%

Riverside or Kingborough Lions

82%

Draw or Kingborough Lions

78%

Winning margin

Riverside wins by 2+

10%

Kingborough Lions wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Riverside 1+ goals

81%

Riverside 2+ goals

50%

Riverside 3+ goals

23%

Kingborough Lions 1+ goals

94%

Kingborough Lions 2+ goals

76%

Kingborough Lions 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Riverside (draw refunded)

27%

Kingborough Lions (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riverside at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.96 · 57 matches

Kingborough Lions away — creates 2.62, concedes 1.90 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riverside attack 1.44 + Kingborough Lions defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.67

Kingborough Lions attack 2.62 + Riverside defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Riverside scores more

22%

level

18%

Kingborough Lions scores more

60%

Kingborough Lions at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kingborough Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff