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Kingborough Lions vs Riverside — Tasmania NPL 2026

Kingborough Lions
Kingborough Lions
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Riverside
Riverside
8/9/2025Tasmania NPLTasmania NPL · Round 17Clennett's Lightwood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Kingborough Lions67%
×Draw17%
Riverside16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kingborough Lions
2.74
Riverside
1.29

Kingborough Lions creates 112% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 56 away

creates per match

Kingborough Lions
2.64
Riverside
0.98

allows per match

Kingborough Lions
1.59
Riverside
2.84

finishing

Kingborough Lions+0.00on par
Riverside+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingborough Lions ↓

Riverside →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Kingborough Lions or draw
84%
Kingborough Lions or Riverside
83%
Draw or Riverside
33%

Winning margin

Kingborough Lions wins by 2+
46%
Riverside wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kingborough Lions 1+ goals
93%
Kingborough Lions 2+ goals
75%
Kingborough Lions 3+ goals
51%
Riverside 1+ goals
72%
Riverside 2+ goals
37%
Riverside 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kingborough Lions (draw refunded)
81%
Riverside (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingborough Lions at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

Riverside away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.84 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingborough Lions attack 2.64 + Riverside defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.74

Riverside attack 0.98 + Kingborough Lions defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kingborough Lions scores more
67%
level
17%
Riverside scores more
16%

Kingborough Lions at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Kingborough Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tasmania NPL: Kingborough Lions 2–0 Riverside

Kingborough Lions beat Riverside 2-0 in Tasmania NPL on August 9, 2025.

The match was played at Clennett's Lightwood Park in Kingston.