Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rivers United vs MFM — NPFL 2019

Rivers United
Rivers United
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
MFM
MFM
5/8/2022NPFLNPFL · Round 27Yakubu Gowon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Rivers United64%
×Draw25%
MFM11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rivers United
1.54
MFM
0.45

Rivers United creates 242% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 61 away

creates per match

Rivers United
1.68
MFM
0.49

allows per match

Rivers United
0.42
MFM
1.41

finishing

Rivers United+0.00on par
MFM+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rivers United ↓

MFM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Rivers United or draw
89%
Rivers United or MFM
75%
Draw or MFM
36%

Winning margin

Rivers United wins by 2+
35%
MFM wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Rivers United 1+ goals
79%
Rivers United 2+ goals
45%
Rivers United 3+ goals
20%
MFM 1+ goals
36%
MFM 2+ goals
8%
MFM 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Rivers United (draw refunded)
86%
MFM (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rivers United at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.42 · 130 matches

MFM away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rivers United attack 1.68 + MFM defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.54

MFM attack 0.49 + Rivers United defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Rivers United scores more
64%
level
25%
MFM scores more
11%

Rivers United at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Rivers United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Rivers United 5–0 MFM

Rivers United beat MFM 5-0 in NPFL on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Yakubu Gowon Stadium in Port Harcourt.