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MFM vs Rivers United — NPFL 2019

MFM
MFM
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rivers United
Rivers United
7/28/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 36Agege Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

MFM48%
×Draw31%
Rivers United21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MFM
1.19
Rivers United
0.68

MFM creates 75% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 130 away

creates per match

MFM
1.16
Rivers United
0.72

allows per match

MFM
0.63
Rivers United
1.22

finishing

MFM+0.00on par
Rivers United+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MFM ↓

Rivers United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

MFM or draw
79%
MFM or Rivers United
69%
Draw or Rivers United
52%

Winning margin

MFM wins by 2+
21%
Rivers United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

MFM 1+ goals
70%
MFM 2+ goals
33%
MFM 3+ goals
12%
Rivers United 1+ goals
49%
Rivers United 2+ goals
15%
Rivers United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

MFM (draw refunded)
70%
Rivers United (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MFM at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.63 · 62 matches

Rivers United away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MFM attack 1.16 + Rivers United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Rivers United attack 0.72 + MFM defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

MFM scores more
48%
level
31%
Rivers United scores more
21%

MFM at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "MFM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: MFM 2–2 Rivers United

MFM and Rivers United drew 2-2 in NPFL on July 28, 2021.

The match was played at Agege Stadium in Lagos.