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Rivers United vs Gombe United — NPFL 2019

Rivers United
Rivers United
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gombe United
Gombe United
J. Seiyefa 87', 83'
N. Nwagua 64'
E. Godswill 50'
S. Asiegbu 40', 10'
6/15/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 37Adokiye Amiesimaka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Rivers United72%
×Draw21%
Gombe United7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rivers United
1.79
Gombe United
0.39

Rivers United creates 359% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 59 away

creates per match

Rivers United
1.69
Gombe United
0.36

allows per match

Rivers United
0.41
Gombe United
1.90

finishing

Rivers United+0.00on par
Gombe United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rivers United ↓

Gombe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rivers United or draw
93%
Rivers United or Gombe United
79%
Draw or Gombe United
28%

Winning margin

Rivers United wins by 2+
44%
Gombe United wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Rivers United 1+ goals
83%
Rivers United 2+ goals
53%
Rivers United 3+ goals
26%
Gombe United 1+ goals
32%
Gombe United 2+ goals
6%
Gombe United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Rivers United (draw refunded)
91%
Gombe United (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rivers United at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.41 · 131 matches

Gombe United away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.90 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rivers United attack 1.69 + Gombe United defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.79

Gombe United attack 0.36 + Rivers United defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Rivers United scores more
72%
level
21%
Gombe United scores more
7%

Rivers United at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Rivers United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
S. Asiegbu
15'
40'
S. Asiegbu
50'
E. Godswill
61'
P. Odeh
64'
N. Nwagua
64'
N. Nwagua← J. Seiyefa
64'
C. Eze-Ogbodo← C. Eze-Ogbodo
83'
J. Seiyefa↳ A. Okpe
87'
J. Seiyefa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rivers United vs Gombe United

Rivers United beat Gombe United 6-0 in NPFL on June 15, 2024.

Goals: S. Asiegbu (10', 40'), E. Godswill (50'), N. Nwagua (64'), J. Seiyefa (83', 87').

The match was played at Adokiye Amiesimaka Stadium in Port Harcourt.