Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gombe United vs Rivers United — NPFL 2019

Gombe United
Gombe United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rivers United
Rivers United
W. Alalade 45+2'
A. Okpe 45'
1/7/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 17Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Gombe United48%
×Draw29%
Rivers United23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gombe United
1.25
Rivers United
0.77

Gombe United creates 62% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 130 away

creates per match

Gombe United
1.28
Rivers United
0.72

allows per match

Gombe United
0.81
Rivers United
1.22

finishing

Gombe United+0.00on par
Rivers United+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gombe United ↓

Rivers United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Gombe United or draw
77%
Gombe United or Rivers United
71%
Draw or Rivers United
52%

Winning margin

Gombe United wins by 2+
22%
Rivers United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gombe United 1+ goals
71%
Gombe United 2+ goals
36%
Gombe United 3+ goals
13%
Rivers United 1+ goals
54%
Rivers United 2+ goals
18%
Rivers United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gombe United (draw refunded)
68%
Rivers United (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gombe United at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.81 · 58 matches

Rivers United away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gombe United attack 1.28 + Rivers United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Rivers United attack 0.72 + Gombe United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gombe United scores more
48%
level
29%
Rivers United scores more
23%

Gombe United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gombe United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
E. Ampiah
45+1'
45+2'
45'
A. Okpe
45+2'
W. Alalade
57'
59'
90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Gombe United 1–1 Rivers United

Gombe United and Rivers United drew 1-1 in NPFL on January 7, 2024.

Goals: A. Okpe (45'), W. Alalade (45+2').

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium in Gombe.