Rivers United vs Adamawa United

Rivers United

CANC

00:00

Adamawa United

4/19/2020

NPFL · Round 31Yakubu Gowon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Rivers United78%

×Draw17%

Adamawa United5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rivers UnitedExpected goals in this matchAdamawa United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.32

Rivers United

2.02

Adamawa United

0.32

Rivers United creates 531% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 31 away

1.69

creates per match

0.23

0.41

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Rivers United

1.69

Adamawa United

0.23

allows per match

Rivers United

0.41

Adamawa United

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rivers United+0.00on par

Adamawa United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No76
Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rivers United ↓

Adamawa United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–13%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–020%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rivers United or draw

95%

Rivers United or Adamawa United

83%

Draw or Adamawa United

22%

Winning margin

Rivers United wins by 2+

51%

Adamawa United wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Rivers United 1+ goals

87%

Rivers United 2+ goals

60%

Rivers United 3+ goals

33%

Adamawa United 1+ goals

27%

Adamawa United 2+ goals

4%

Adamawa United 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Rivers United (draw refunded)

94%

Adamawa United (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rivers United at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.41 · 131 matches

Adamawa United away — creates 0.23, concedes 2.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rivers United attack 1.69 + Adamawa United defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.02

Adamawa United attack 0.23 + Rivers United defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Rivers United scores more

78%

level

17%

Adamawa United scores more

5%

Rivers United at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Rivers United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff