Adamawa United 2–0 Rivers United: Result & Stats

Adamawa United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Rivers United

6/13/2021

NPFL · Round 27Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Adamawa United41%

×Draw32%

Rivers United27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adamawa UnitedExpected goals in this matchRivers United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.81

Adamawa United

1.08

Rivers United

0.81

Adamawa United creates 33% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 131 away

0.94

creates per match

0.72

0.91

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Adamawa United

0.94

Rivers United

0.72

allows per match

Adamawa United

0.91

Rivers United

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adamawa United+0.00on par

Rivers United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adamawa United ↓

Rivers United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Adamawa United or draw

73%

Adamawa United or Rivers United

68%

Draw or Rivers United

59%

Winning margin

Adamawa United wins by 2+

17%

Rivers United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Adamawa United 1+ goals

66%

Adamawa United 2+ goals

29%

Adamawa United 3+ goals

10%

Rivers United 1+ goals

56%

Rivers United 2+ goals

19%

Rivers United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Adamawa United (draw refunded)

61%

Rivers United (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adamawa United at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Rivers United away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.22 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adamawa United attack 0.94 + Rivers United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.08

Rivers United attack 0.72 + Adamawa United defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Adamawa United scores more

41%

level

32%

Rivers United scores more

27%

Adamawa United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Adamawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff