River Plate vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 13+ matches
River Plate58%
Platense18%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
River Plate creates 109% more chances
Season form · 21 home / 13 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
River Plate ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
River Plate at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 21 matches
Platense away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.33 · 13 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
River Plate attack 1.92 + Platense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.63
Platense attack 0.80 + River Plate defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 58%?"
River Plate at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 58% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Boca Juniors
Rosario Central
Estudiantes L.P.
Argentinos JRSRiver Plate
Racing Club
Gimnasia L.P.
Belgrano Cordoba
Velez Sarsfield
Lanus
Independ. Rivadavia
Union Santa Fe
San Lorenzo
Talleres Cordoba
Tigre
Barracas Central
Huracan
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Independiente
Deportivo Riestra
Banfield
Sarmiento Junin
Defensa Y Justicia
Instituto Cordoba
Atletico Tucuman
Newells Old BoysPlatense
Aldosivi
San Martin S.J.
Gimnasia M.
Godoy Cruz
Estudiantes de Rio CuartoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
River Plate host Platense on Monday, 14 July 2025 at 00:00. The match is part of the Liga Profesional Argentina 2026/2027 season.
Liga Profesional Argentina: River Plate 3–1 Platense
River Plate beat Platense 3-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on July 14, 2025.
Goals: F. Colidio (7'), R. Martinez (24'), M. Salas (39'), Miguel Borja (90').
River Plate controlled possession (66%) and registered 11 shots to 9.
The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Buenos Aires.