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Platense vs River Plate — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Platense
Platense
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
River Plate
River Plate
10/6/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 17Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Platense43%
×Draw33%
River Plate24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense
1.04
River Plate
0.70

Platense creates 49% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

creates per match

Platense
1.05
River Plate
0.73

allows per match

Platense
0.67
River Plate
1.02

finishing

Platense-0.34scores less
River Plate+0.07on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Platense or draw
76%
Platense or River Plate
67%
Draw or River Plate
57%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+
17%
River Plate wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals
65%
Platense 2+ goals
28%
Platense 3+ goals
9%
River Plate 1+ goals
50%
River Plate 2+ goals
16%
River Plate 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)
64%
River Plate (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.67 · 17 matches

River Plate away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.02 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.05 + River Plate defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

River Plate attack 0.73 + Platense defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Platense scores more
43%
level
33%
River Plate scores more
24%

Platense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Platense vs River Plate

Platense and River Plate drew 0-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López in Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires.