River Plate 2–1 Platense: Result & Stats

River Plate

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Platense

M. Suárez 64'

N. De La Cruz 60'

M. Zárate 70'

10/13/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 25Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

River Plate57%

×Draw25%

Platense18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River PlateExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.75

River Plate

1.57

Platense

0.75

River Plate creates 109% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

1.93

creates per match

0.73

0.77

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

River Plate

1.93

Platense

0.73

allows per match

River Plate

0.77

Platense

1.21

+0.02on par

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

River Plate+0.02on par

Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

River Plate or draw

82%

River Plate or Platense

75%

Draw or Platense

43%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+

30%

Platense wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals

79%

River Plate 2+ goals

46%

River Plate 3+ goals

21%

Platense 1+ goals

53%

Platense 2+ goals

17%

Platense 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)

76%

Platense (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.77 · 22 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 1.93 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.57

Platense attack 0.73 + River Plate defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

River Plate scores more

57%

level

25%

Platense scores more

18%

River Plate at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

N. De La Cruz

River Plate · M

8.5

Match Events

1'

Emanuel Mammana

13'

J. Esquivel← I. Schor

17'

Marcelo Herrera

42'

Miguel Borja

46'

L. Beltrán← J. Quintero

46'

S. Simón← A. Palavecino

46'

M. Suárez← M. Borja

51'

Gastón Suso

60'

N. De La Cruz↳ E. Barco

61'

L. González← E. Mammana

64'

M. Suárez

66'

M. Zárate← N. Morgantini

66'

G. Bergessio← J. Benítez

66'

V. Taborda← C. Villalba

67'

Milton Casco

70'

M. Zárate

72'

Gonzalo Bergessio

81'

F. Gino← F. Baldassarra

84'

Juan Cruz Esquivel

90+2'

Leandro González Pírez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RiverPlatense

Overview

69%Possession31%

18Total Shots9

6Corners2

12Fouls18

Shots

18Total Shots9

6On Target3

7Off Target4

5Blocked2

8Inside Box4

10Outside Box5

Passing

69%Possession31%

624Total Passes277

504Accurate Passes164

81%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls18

5Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0