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River Plate vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

River Plate
River Plate
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Platense
Platense
J. Álvarez 80' (pen)
J. Paradela 11'
B. Mansilla 14'
5/9/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 14Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

River Plate57%
×Draw25%
Platense18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Plate
1.57
Platense
0.75

River Plate creates 109% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

creates per match

River Plate
1.93
Platense
0.73

allows per match

River Plate
0.77
Platense
1.21

finishing

River Plate+0.02on par
Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

Platense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

River Plate or draw
82%
River Plate or Platense
75%
Draw or Platense
43%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+
30%
Platense wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals
79%
River Plate 2+ goals
46%
River Plate 3+ goals
21%
Platense 1+ goals
53%
Platense 2+ goals
17%
Platense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)
76%
Platense (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.77 · 22 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 1.93 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.57

Platense attack 0.73 + River Plate defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

River Plate scores more
57%
level
25%
Platense scores more
18%

River Plate at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
E. GómezRiver PlateRiver Plate · M
7.7

Match Events

11'
J. Paradela
14'
L. Gonzalez
14'
B. Mansilla↳ H. Tijanovich
38'
H. Lamberti
48'
F. Russo← H. Tijanovich
62'
G. Bergessio← B. Mansilla
63'
M. Bogado← N. Bertolo
68'
T. Pochettino← S. Simón
68'
J. Álvarez← C. Ferreira
68'
E. Barco← J. Paradela
79'
J. De Olivera
80'
J. ÁlvarezPenalty
81'
F. Gonzales← H. Canteros
81'
A. Alonso← I. Schor
87'
E. Fernández← A. Palavecino
87'
N. De La Cruz← B. Romero

Possession

68%River

Shots

19River

Pass accuracy

58%River

Statistics

RiverPlatense
Overview
68%Possession32%
19Total Shots3
10Corners3
8Fouls14
Shots
19Total Shots3
6On Target1
9Off Target1
4Blocked1
11Inside Box1
8Outside Box2
Passing
68%Possession32%
616Total Passes281
506Accurate Passes167
82%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls14
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: River Plate 2–1 Platense

River Plate beat Platense 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on May 9, 2022.

Goals: J. Paradela (11'), B. Mansilla (14'), J. Álvarez (80' pen).

River Plate controlled possession (68%) and registered 19 shots to 3.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.