River Plate 2–0 Platense: Result & Stats

River Plate

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Platense

I. Scocco 82' (pen)

L. Pratto 65' (pen)

9/12/2018

Copa Argentina · 8th FinalsEstadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez (Lanús, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

River Plate66%

×Draw23%

Platense11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River PlateExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.54

River Plate

1.70

Platense

0.54

River Plate creates 215% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

2.73

creates per match

0.67

0.40

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

River Plate

2.73

Platense

0.67

allows per match

River Plate

0.40

Platense

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

River Plate+0.00on par

Platense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

River Plate or draw

89%

River Plate or Platense

77%

Draw or Platense

34%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+

38%

Platense wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals

82%

River Plate 2+ goals

51%

River Plate 3+ goals

24%

Platense 1+ goals

42%

Platense 2+ goals

10%

Platense 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)

85%

Platense (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

Platense away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 2.73 + Platense defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.70

Platense attack 0.67 + River Plate defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

River Plate scores more

66%

level

23%

Platense scores more

11%

River Plate at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

D. Tonetto← F. Curuchet

57'

I. Fernández← C. Ferreira

65'

L. PrattoPenalty

68'

J. Vizcarra← C. Amarilla

70'

I. Scocco← L. Pratto

74'

C. Mayada← N. De La Cruz

79'

C. Tarragona← D. Vega

82'

I. ScoccoPenalty

River

Platense

1

6

2

4

3

8

5

10

9

▼

Vega

7

▼

Curuchet

11

▼

14

22

2

20

29

23

24

11

▼

Cruz

21

▼

Ferreira

27

⚽

▼

Pratto

19

Borré

Manager: M. Gallardo

57'▲I. Fernández←▼C. Ferreira

70'▲I. Scocco←▼L. Pratto

74'▲C. Mayada←▼N. De La Cruz

River Plate substitutes

26Fernández32Scocco18Mayada5Zuculini7Mora25Bologna28Martínez

Manager: F. Ruiz

17'▲D. Tonetto←▼F. Curuchet

68'▲J. Vizcarra←▼C. Amarilla

79'▲C. Tarragona←▼D. Vega

Platense substitutes

16Tonetto18Vizcarra17Tarragona15Gallegos13Luciatti14Chiviló12Desábato