River Plate 2–3 NEC Res.: Result & Stats

River Plate

FT

2 – 3

NEC Res.

12/20/2021

Division di Honor · Round 9Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

River Plate42%

×Draw19%

NEC Res.39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River PlateExpected goals in this matchNEC Res.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.57

2.49

River Plate

2.57

NEC Res.

2.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 13 away

1.83

creates per match

2.54

2.44

allows per match

3.31

creates per match

River Plate

1.83

NEC Res.

2.54

allows per match

River Plate

2.44

NEC Res.

3.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

River Plate+0.00on par

NEC Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes84
No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

NEC Res. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–25%

1–34%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

River Plate or draw

61%

River Plate or NEC Res.

81%

Draw or NEC Res.

58%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+

25%

NEC Res. wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals

92%

River Plate 2+ goals

72%

River Plate 3+ goals

47%

NEC Res. 1+ goals

92%

NEC Res. 2+ goals

71%

NEC Res. 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)

52%

NEC Res. (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

80%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.44 · 41 matches

NEC Res. away — creates 2.54, concedes 3.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 1.83 + NEC Res. defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.57

NEC Res. attack 2.54 + River Plate defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

River Plate scores more

42%

level

19%

NEC Res. scores more

39%

River Plate at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff