NEC Res. 4–4 River Plate: Result & Stats

NEC Res.

FT

4 – 4

HT: 3 – 2

River Plate

4/30/2022

Division di Honor · Round 18Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

NEC Res.19%

×Draw16%

River Plate65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NEC Res.Expected goals in this matchRiver Plate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

3.19

NEC Res.

1.73

River Plate

3.19

River Plate creates 84% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 43 away

1.14

creates per match

1.95

4.43

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

NEC Res.

1.14

River Plate

1.95

allows per match

NEC Res.

4.43

River Plate

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NEC Res.+0.00on par

River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC Res. ↓

River Plate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–37%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

NEC Res. or draw

35%

NEC Res. or River Plate

84%

Draw or River Plate

81%

Winning margin

NEC Res. wins by 2+

9%

River Plate wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

NEC Res. 1+ goals

82%

NEC Res. 2+ goals

52%

NEC Res. 3+ goals

25%

River Plate 1+ goals

96%

River Plate 2+ goals

82%

River Plate 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

NEC Res. (draw refunded)

23%

River Plate (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC Res. at home — creates 1.14, concedes 4.43 · 14 matches

River Plate away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.33 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC Res. attack 1.14 + River Plate defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.73

River Plate attack 1.95 + NEC Res. defence 4.43 → ÷2 → 3.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

NEC Res. scores more

19%

level

16%

River Plate scores more

65%

River Plate at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff