River Plate 0–2 Nacional: Result & Stats

River Plate

FT

0 – 2

Nacional

9/28/2024

Division di Honor · Round 1Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

River Plate28%

×Draw20%

Nacional52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River PlateExpected goals in this matchNacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

2.33

River Plate

1.70

Nacional

2.33

Nacional creates 37% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 61 away

1.83

creates per match

2.21

2.44

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

River Plate

1.83

Nacional

2.21

allows per match

River Plate

2.44

Nacional

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

River Plate+0.00on par

Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

River Plate or draw

48%

River Plate or Nacional

80%

Draw or Nacional

72%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+

14%

Nacional wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals

82%

River Plate 2+ goals

51%

River Plate 3+ goals

24%

Nacional 1+ goals

90%

Nacional 2+ goals

67%

Nacional 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)

35%

Nacional (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.44 · 41 matches

Nacional away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 1.83 + Nacional defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.70

Nacional attack 2.21 + River Plate defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

River Plate scores more

28%

level

20%

Nacional scores more

52%

Nacional at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff