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Nacional vs River Plate — Division di Honor 2019

Nacional
Nacional
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
River Plate
River Plate
11/23/2025Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Nacional56%
×Draw18%
River Plate25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional
2.71
River Plate
1.80

Nacional creates 51% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 43 away

creates per match

Nacional
3.10
River Plate
1.95

allows per match

Nacional
1.65
River Plate
2.33

finishing

Nacional+0.00on par
River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional ↓

River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Nacional or draw
75%
Nacional or River Plate
82%
Draw or River Plate
44%

Winning margin

Nacional wins by 2+
37%
River Plate wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nacional 1+ goals
93%
Nacional 2+ goals
75%
Nacional 3+ goals
50%
River Plate 1+ goals
83%
River Plate 2+ goals
54%
River Plate 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Nacional (draw refunded)
69%
River Plate (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional at home — creates 3.10, concedes 1.65 · 60 matches

River Plate away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.33 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional attack 3.10 + River Plate defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.71

River Plate attack 1.95 + Nacional defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Nacional scores more
56%
level
18%
River Plate scores more
25%

Nacional at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division di Honor: Nacional 1–2 River Plate

River Plate beat Nacional 2-1 in Division di Honor on November 23, 2025.