River Plate 3–0 LDU de Quito: Result & Stats

River Plate

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

LDU de Quito

J. Carrascal 89'

J. Álvarez 60'

R. Borré 53'

10/21/2020

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 6Estadio Libertadores de América

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

River Plate63%

×Draw22%

LDU de Quito15%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River PlateExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.77

River Plate

1.85

LDU de Quito

0.77

River Plate creates 140% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 24 away

2.13

creates per match

0.83

0.72

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

River Plate

2.13

LDU de Quito

0.83

allows per match

River Plate

0.72

LDU de Quito

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

River Plate+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

River Plate or draw

85%

River Plate or LDU de Quito

78%

Draw or LDU de Quito

37%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+

37%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals

84%

River Plate 2+ goals

55%

River Plate 3+ goals

28%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

54%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

18%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)

81%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.72 · 32 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 2.13 + LDU de Quito defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.85

LDU de Quito attack 0.83 + River Plate defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

River Plate scores more

63%

level

22%

LDU de Quito scores more

15%

River Plate at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

R. Borré

River Plate · F

8.0

Match Events

11'

19'

20'

23'

46'

S. Sosa← I. Fernández

53'

R. Borré↳ S. Sosa

60'

J. Álvarez↳ R. Borré

66'

L. Ponzio← E. Pérez

66'

J. Sornoza← J. Quinteros

66'

J. Alcivar← L. Villarruel

76'

M. Caicedo← J. Julio

83'

J. Carrascal← J. Álvarez

83'

C. Ferreira← R. Borré

84'

N. De La Cruz

88'

L. Pratto← N. De La Cruz

89'

J. Carrascal↳ L. Pratto

90'

B. Arce← A. Muñoz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RiverLDU

Overview

54%Possession46%

21Total Shots12

7Corners4

14Fouls5

Shots

21Total Shots12

6On Target4

10Off Target6

5Blocked2

13Inside Box6

8Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

528Total Passes447

435Accurate Passes351

82%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls5

2Yellow Cards3

5Offsides1