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LDU de Quito vs River Plate — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
River Plate
River Plate
J. Sornoza 76' (pen)
C. Martínez 36'
F. Guerra 15'
3/5/2020CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 1Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

LDU de Quito54%
×Draw23%
River Plate23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.80
River Plate
1.09

LDU de Quito creates 65% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 35 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
2.29
River Plate
1.43

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.75
River Plate
1.31

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
77%
LDU de Quito or River Plate
77%
Draw or River Plate
46%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
30%
River Plate wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
83%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
54%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
27%
River Plate 1+ goals
66%
River Plate 2+ goals
30%
River Plate 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
70%
River Plate (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

River Plate away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.29 + River Plate defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.80

River Plate attack 1.43 + LDU de Quito defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
54%
level
23%
River Plate scores more
23%

LDU de Quito at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. SornozaLDU de QuitoLDU de Quito · M
9.8

Match Events

15'
F. Guerra↳ J. Sornoza
34'
Junior Sornoza
36'
C. Martínez↳ L. Ayala
40'
Leonardo Ponzio
61'
B. Arce← M. Caicedo
67'
F. Girotti← J. Carrascal
68'
R. Aguirre← C. Martínez
71'
Enrique Bologna
73'
G. Lux← J. Álvarez
74'
Bruno Zuculini
76'
J. SornozaPenalty
77'
Luis Ayala
81'
E. Fernández← S. Sosa
83'
M. Zunino← J. Quinteros
84'
Cristian Ferreira
89'
Lucas Pratto

Possession

60%LDU

Shots

18LDU

Pass accuracy

54%LDU

Statistics

LDURiver
Overview
60%Possession40%
18Total Shots11
10Corners2
12Fouls14
Shots
18Total Shots11
7On Target4
6Off Target4
5Blocked3
12Inside Box3
6Outside Box8
Passing
60%Possession40%
476Total Passes335
404Accurate Passes245
85%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls14
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1

Match Recap: LDU de Quito vs River Plate

LDU de Quito beat River Plate 3-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on March 5, 2020.

Goals: F. Guerra (15'), C. Martínez (36'), J. Sornoza (76' pen).

LDU de Quito controlled possession (60%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.