River Plate 4–2 Godoy Cruz: Result & Stats

River Plate

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Godoy Cruz

S. Driussi 49', 4'

Giuliano Galoppo 45', 19'

A. Auzmendi 29' (pen), 9'

8/17/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

River Plate58%

×Draw24%

Godoy Cruz18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River PlateExpected goals in this matchGodoy Cruz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.78

River Plate

1.65

Godoy Cruz

0.78

River Plate creates 112% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 9 away

1.92

creates per match

0.80

0.75

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

River Plate

1.92

Godoy Cruz

0.80

allows per match

River Plate

0.75

Godoy Cruz

1.37

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

River Plate+0.13scores more

Godoy Cruz+0.09on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

Godoy Cruz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

River Plate or draw

82%

River Plate or Godoy Cruz

76%

Draw or Godoy Cruz

42%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+

32%

Godoy Cruz wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals

81%

River Plate 2+ goals

49%

River Plate 3+ goals

23%

Godoy Cruz 1+ goals

54%

Godoy Cruz 2+ goals

18%

Godoy Cruz 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)

77%

Godoy Cruz (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 21 matches

Godoy Cruz away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.37 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 1.92 + Godoy Cruz defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.65

Godoy Cruz attack 0.80 + River Plate defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

River Plate scores more

58%

level

24%

Godoy Cruz scores more

18%

River Plate at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

Giuliano Galoppo

River Plate · M

9.6

Match Events

4'

S. Driussi↳ B. Dadin

9'

A. Auzmendi↳ S. Andino

13'

Juan Moran

19'

Giuliano Galoppo

29'

A. AuzmendiPenalty

36'

M. Acuna← F. Bustos

43'

Marcos Acuña

45'

Giuliano Galoppo↳ J. Quintero

46'

M. Galarza← J. Quintero

46'

P. Fernandez← N. Fernandez

49'

S. Driussi

52'

Pol Fernández

57'

Milton Casco

58'

M. Gonzalez← V. Poggi

58'

W. Montoya← G. Abrego

63'

J. Meza← N. Fernandez

65'

Matías Galarza

68'

M. Sosa← F. Altamira

70'

Miguel Borja← S. Driussi

70'

P. Martinez← B. Dadin

78'

Mateo Mendoza

80'

D. Barrea← A. Auzmendi

88'

Maximiliano GonzálezGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RiverGodoy

Overview

64%Possession36%

22Total Shots11

2.93Expected Goals (xG)1.27

6Corners2

17Fouls11

Shots

22Total Shots11

9On Target5

6Off Target2

7Blocked4

14Inside Box4

8Outside Box7

Passing

64%Possession36%

474Total Passes269

386Accurate Passes198

81%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

-0.62Goals Prevented-0.62

Discipline

17Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2