Godoy Cruz 2–1 River Plate: Result & Stats

Godoy Cruz

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

River Plate

7/24/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 7Estadio Feliciano Gambarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Godoy Cruz39%

×Draw30%

River Plate30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Godoy CruzExpected goals in this matchRiver Plate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.92

Godoy Cruz

1.10

River Plate

0.92

Godoy Cruz creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

1.18

creates per match

0.73

1.10

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Godoy Cruz

1.18

River Plate

0.73

allows per match

Godoy Cruz

1.10

River Plate

1.02

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Godoy Cruz+0.15scores more

River Plate+0.07on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Godoy Cruz ↓

River Plate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Godoy Cruz or draw

70%

Godoy Cruz or River Plate

70%

Draw or River Plate

61%

Winning margin

Godoy Cruz wins by 2+

16%

River Plate wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Godoy Cruz 1+ goals

67%

Godoy Cruz 2+ goals

30%

Godoy Cruz 3+ goals

10%

River Plate 1+ goals

60%

River Plate 2+ goals

23%

River Plate 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Godoy Cruz (draw refunded)

57%

River Plate (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Godoy Cruz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.10 · 6 matches

River Plate away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.02 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Godoy Cruz attack 1.18 + River Plate defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.10

River Plate attack 0.73 + Godoy Cruz defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Godoy Cruz scores more

39%

level

30%

River Plate scores more

30%

Godoy Cruz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Godoy Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff