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River Plate vs Deportivo Riestra — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

River Plate
River Plate
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Deportivo Riestra
Deportivo Riestra
Giuliano Galoppo 25'
P. Ramirez 51'
A. Alonso 12'
9/28/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 10Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

River Plate58%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Riestra17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Plate
1.59
Deportivo Riestra
0.73

River Plate creates 118% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 16 away

creates per match

River Plate
1.93
Deportivo Riestra
0.68

allows per match

River Plate
0.77
Deportivo Riestra
1.25

finishing

River Plate+0.02on par
Deportivo Riestra+0.01on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

Deportivo Riestra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

River Plate or draw
83%
River Plate or Deportivo Riestra
75%
Draw or Deportivo Riestra
42%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+
31%
Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals
80%
River Plate 2+ goals
47%
River Plate 3+ goals
21%
Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals
52%
Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals
17%
Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)
77%
Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.77 · 22 matches

Deportivo Riestra away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 1.93 + Deportivo Riestra defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.59

Deportivo Riestra attack 0.68 + River Plate defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

River Plate scores more
58%
level
25%
Deportivo Riestra scores more
17%

River Plate at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. QuinteroRiver PlateRiver Plate · M
8.7

Match Events

7'
Miguel Barbieri
12'
A. Alonso↳ P. Monje
25'
Giuliano Galoppo↳ M. Salas
51'
P. Ramirez↳ P. Monje
59'
Miguel BorjaGoal cancelled
61'
M. Ramirez← J. Herrera
61'
N. Benegas← A. Alonso
65'
G. Obredor← A. Diaz
66'
Nicolás Benegas
66'
N. Fernandez← Giuliano Galoppo
66'
S. Lencina← K. Castano
72'
J. Randazzo← M. Barbieri
75'
F. Colidio← F. Bustos
81'
Maximiliano Salas
84'
Nicolás Sansotre

Possession

82%River

Shots

21River

Pass accuracy

67%River

Statistics

RiverDeportivo
Overview
82%Possession18%
21Total Shots6
1.32Expected Goals (xG)0.55
15Corners1
9Fouls12
Shots
21Total Shots6
9On Target4
7Off Target1
5Blocked1
14Inside Box3
7Outside Box3
Passing
82%Possession18%
612Total Passes138
534Accurate Passes60
87%Pass Accuracy43%
Goalkeeping
2Saves8
0.77Goals Prevented0.77
Discipline
9Fouls12
0Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: River Plate 1–2 Deportivo Riestra

Deportivo Riestra beat River Plate 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 28, 2025.

Goals: A. Alonso (12'), Giuliano Galoppo (25'), P. Ramirez (51').

River Plate controlled possession (82%) and registered 21 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Buenos Aires.