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River Plate vs Carabobo FC — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

River Plate
River Plate
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Carabobo FC
Carabobo FC
S. Driussi 66'
4/16/2026CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio Mâs Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

River Plate57%
×Draw29%
Carabobo FC14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Plate
1.33
Carabobo FC
0.50

River Plate creates 166% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

River Plate
1.67
Carabobo FC
0.67

allows per match

River Plate
0.33
Carabobo FC
1.00

finishing

River Plate+0.00on par
Carabobo FC+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

Carabobo FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

River Plate or draw
86%
River Plate or Carabobo FC
71%
Draw or Carabobo FC
43%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+
28%
Carabobo FC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals
74%
River Plate 2+ goals
38%
River Plate 3+ goals
15%
Carabobo FC 1+ goals
39%
Carabobo FC 2+ goals
9%
Carabobo FC 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)
80%
Carabobo FC (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Carabobo FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 1.67 + Carabobo FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Carabobo FC attack 0.67 + River Plate defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

River Plate scores more
57%
level
29%
Carabobo FC scores more
14%

River Plate at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. QuinteroRiver PlateRiver Plate · M
7.7

Match Events

5'
German Pezzella
18'
A. Moreno← Fausto Vera
34'
Matías Núñez
40'
Matías Viña
46'
S. Driussi← K. Castano
46'
T. Galvan← I. Subiabre
51'
K. Paez← J. Quintero
66'
S. Driussi↳ K. Paez
71'
E. Tortolero← J. Berios
72'
Y. Orozco← M. Cova
72'
L. Martinez← E. Ramirez
76'
M. Acuna← M. Vina
88'
D. Meza← E. Castillo
90+5'
Jonathan Bilbao

Possession

64%River

Shots

14River

Pass accuracy

55%River

Statistics

RiverCarabobo
Overview
64%Possession36%
14Total Shots4
1.85Expected Goals (xG)0.12
3Corners3
10Fouls16
Shots
14Total Shots4
4On Target1
5Off Target1
5Blocked2
9Inside Box0
5Outside Box4
Passing
64%Possession36%
560Total Passes311
466Accurate Passes215
83%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
0.14Goals Prevented0.14
Discipline
10Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: River Plate vs Carabobo FC

River Plate beat Carabobo FC 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 16, 2026.

Goals: S. Driussi (66').

River Plate controlled possession (64%) and registered 14 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Mâs Monumental in Buenos Aires.