Carabobo FC 1–2 River Plate: Result & Stats

Carabobo FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

River Plate

M. Nunez 77' (pen)

M. Salas 90'

M. Meza 59'

5/8/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Misael Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Carabobo FC35%

×Draw31%

River Plate35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carabobo FCExpected goals in this matchRiver Plate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

Carabobo FC

1.00

River Plate

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

1.33

0.67

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Carabobo FC

1.33

River Plate

1.33

allows per match

Carabobo FC

0.67

River Plate

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carabobo FC+0.00on par

River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carabobo FC ↓

River Plate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Carabobo FC or draw

65%

Carabobo FC or River Plate

69%

Draw or River Plate

65%

Winning margin

Carabobo FC wins by 2+

13%

River Plate wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Carabobo FC 1+ goals

63%

Carabobo FC 2+ goals

26%

Carabobo FC 3+ goals

8%

River Plate 1+ goals

63%

River Plate 2+ goals

26%

River Plate 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Carabobo FC (draw refunded)

50%

River Plate (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carabobo FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

River Plate away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carabobo FC attack 1.33 + River Plate defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

River Plate attack 1.33 + Carabobo FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Carabobo FC scores more

35%

level

31%

River Plate scores more

35%

Carabobo FC at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Carabobo FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

M. Vina

River Plate · D

7.7

Match Events

-5'

Ezequiel Centurión

24'

Matías ViñaPenalty confirmed

25'

Ezequiel Neira

26'

Juan Fernando QuinteroMissed penalty

37'

Facundo González

45'

Edson Castillo

45+4'

Edson Castillo

45+4'

Edson CastilloCard upgrade

46'

J. Fuentes← Y. Orozco

46'

M. Cova← E. Tortolero

49'

55'

59'

60'

60'

71'

72'

73'

74'

77'

M. NunezPenalty

79'

K. Paez← J. Quintero

79'

L. Pereyra← L. Silva

82'

Lucas Bruera

84'

Santiago BeltránCard upgrade

86'

Santiago Beltrán

90'

M. Salas↳ F. Gonzalez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CaraboboRiver

Overview

34%Possession66%

7Total Shots15

0.98Expected Goals (xG)2.09

2Corners6

7Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots15

1On Target7

2Off Target2

4Blocked6

2Inside Box7

5Outside Box8

Passing

34%Possession66%

241Total Passes485

186Accurate Passes412

77%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

-0.05Goals Prevented-0.05

Discipline

7Fouls15

3Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards1

1Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Carabobo FC 1–2 River Plate

River Plate beat Carabobo FC 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 8, 2026.

Goals: M. Meza (59'), M. Nunez (77' pen), M. Salas (90').

River Plate controlled possession (66%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Misael Delgado in Valencia.

Carabobo FC vs River Plate — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Carabobo FC 1–2 River Plate