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River Plate vs Bubali — Division di Honor 2019

River Plate
River Plate
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bubali
Bubali
2/12/2022Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 10Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

River Plate48%
×Draw19%
Bubali33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Plate
2.53
Bubali
2.10

River Plate creates 20% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 30 away

creates per match

River Plate
1.83
Bubali
1.77

allows per match

River Plate
2.44
Bubali
3.23

finishing

River Plate+0.00on par
Bubali+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

Bubali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

River Plate or draw
67%
River Plate or Bubali
81%
Draw or Bubali
52%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+
29%
Bubali wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals
92%
River Plate 2+ goals
71%
River Plate 3+ goals
46%
Bubali 1+ goals
88%
Bubali 2+ goals
62%
Bubali 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)
59%
Bubali (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.44 · 41 matches

Bubali away — creates 1.77, concedes 3.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 1.83 + Bubali defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.53

Bubali attack 1.77 + River Plate defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

River Plate scores more
48%
level
19%
Bubali scores more
33%

River Plate at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division di Honor: River Plate 5–1 Bubali

River Plate beat Bubali 5-1 in Division di Honor on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad in Oranjestad.