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Bubali vs River Plate — Division di Honor 2019

Bubali
Bubali
FT
0 – 5
River Plate
River Plate
10/23/2021Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 1Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Bubali29%
×Draw20%
River Plate51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bubali
1.71
River Plate
2.29

River Plate creates 34% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 43 away

creates per match

Bubali
1.09
River Plate
1.95

allows per match

Bubali
2.62
River Plate
2.33

finishing

Bubali+0.00on par
River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bubali ↓

River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Bubali or draw
49%
Bubali or River Plate
80%
Draw or River Plate
71%

Winning margin

Bubali wins by 2+
14%
River Plate wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Bubali 1+ goals
82%
Bubali 2+ goals
51%
Bubali 3+ goals
24%
River Plate 1+ goals
90%
River Plate 2+ goals
66%
River Plate 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Bubali (draw refunded)
36%
River Plate (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bubali at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.62 · 34 matches

River Plate away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.33 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bubali attack 1.09 + River Plate defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.71

River Plate attack 1.95 + Bubali defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bubali scores more
29%
level
20%
River Plate scores more
51%

River Plate at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bubali vs River Plate

River Plate beat Bubali 5-0 in Division di Honor on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad in Oranjestad.