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River Ebro vs Rapid de Murillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

River Ebro
River Ebro
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Rapid de Murillo
Rapid de Murillo
9/25/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 3Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

River Ebro68%
×Draw18%
Rapid de Murillo14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Ebro
2.35
Rapid de Murillo
0.94

River Ebro creates 150% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 15 away

creates per match

River Ebro
1.24
Rapid de Murillo
0.73

allows per match

River Ebro
1.16
Rapid de Murillo
3.47

finishing

River Ebro+0.00on par
Rapid de Murillo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Ebro ↓

Rapid de Murillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

River Ebro or draw
86%
River Ebro or Rapid de Murillo
82%
Draw or Rapid de Murillo
32%

Winning margin

River Ebro wins by 2+
46%
Rapid de Murillo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

River Ebro 1+ goals
90%
River Ebro 2+ goals
68%
River Ebro 3+ goals
41%
Rapid de Murillo 1+ goals
61%
Rapid de Murillo 2+ goals
24%
Rapid de Murillo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

River Ebro (draw refunded)
83%
Rapid de Murillo (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Ebro at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.16 · 93 matches

Rapid de Murillo away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Ebro attack 1.24 + Rapid de Murillo defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.35

Rapid de Murillo attack 0.73 + River Ebro defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

River Ebro scores more
68%
level
18%
Rapid de Murillo scores more
14%

River Ebro at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "River Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

River Ebro 4 – 0 Rapid de Murillo

River Ebro beat Rapid de Murillo 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Rincón de Soto.