Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rapid de Murillo vs River Ebro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Rapid de Murillo
Rapid de Murillo
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
River Ebro
River Ebro
2/5/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 18Estadio El Rozo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rapid de Murillo31%
×Draw23%
River Ebro46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid de Murillo
1.40
River Ebro
1.75

River Ebro creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 93 away

creates per match

Rapid de Murillo
0.87
River Ebro
1.09

allows per match

Rapid de Murillo
2.40
River Ebro
1.92

finishing

Rapid de Murillo+0.00on par
River Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid de Murillo ↓

River Ebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Rapid de Murillo or draw
54%
Rapid de Murillo or River Ebro
77%
Draw or River Ebro
69%

Winning margin

Rapid de Murillo wins by 2+
14%
River Ebro wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Rapid de Murillo 1+ goals
75%
Rapid de Murillo 2+ goals
41%
Rapid de Murillo 3+ goals
17%
River Ebro 1+ goals
83%
River Ebro 2+ goals
52%
River Ebro 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Rapid de Murillo (draw refunded)
40%
River Ebro (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid de Murillo at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

River Ebro away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid de Murillo attack 0.87 + River Ebro defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.40

River Ebro attack 1.09 + Rapid de Murillo defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rapid de Murillo scores more
31%
level
23%
River Ebro scores more
46%

River Ebro at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "River Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rapid de Murillo vs River Ebro

River Ebro beat Rapid de Murillo 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Rozo in Murillo de Río Leza.