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River Ebro vs Racing Rioja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

River Ebro
River Ebro
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Rioja
Racing Rioja
11/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 7Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

River Ebro37%
×Draw26%
Racing Rioja36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Ebro
1.33
Racing Rioja
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 30 away

creates per match

River Ebro
1.24
Racing Rioja
1.47

allows per match

River Ebro
1.16
Racing Rioja
1.43

finishing

River Ebro+0.00on par
Racing Rioja+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Ebro ↓

Racing Rioja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

River Ebro or draw
64%
River Ebro or Racing Rioja
74%
Draw or Racing Rioja
63%

Winning margin

River Ebro wins by 2+
17%
Racing Rioja wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

River Ebro 1+ goals
74%
River Ebro 2+ goals
38%
River Ebro 3+ goals
15%
Racing Rioja 1+ goals
73%
Racing Rioja 2+ goals
38%
Racing Rioja 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

River Ebro (draw refunded)
51%
Racing Rioja (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Ebro at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.16 · 93 matches

Racing Rioja away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Ebro attack 1.24 + Racing Rioja defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Racing Rioja attack 1.47 + River Ebro defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

River Ebro scores more
37%
level
26%
Racing Rioja scores more
36%

River Ebro at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "River Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: River Ebro 0–1 Racing Rioja

Racing Rioja beat River Ebro 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Rincón de Soto.