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Racing Rioja vs River Ebro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Racing Rioja
Racing Rioja
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
River Ebro
River Ebro
2/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 18Estadio El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Racing Rioja55%
×Draw23%
River Ebro22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Rioja
1.86
River Ebro
1.08

Racing Rioja creates 72% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 93 away

creates per match

Racing Rioja
1.80
River Ebro
1.09

allows per match

Racing Rioja
1.07
River Ebro
1.92

finishing

Racing Rioja+0.00on par
River Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Rioja ↓

River Ebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Racing Rioja or draw
78%
Racing Rioja or River Ebro
77%
Draw or River Ebro
45%

Winning margin

Racing Rioja wins by 2+
32%
River Ebro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Racing Rioja 1+ goals
84%
Racing Rioja 2+ goals
55%
Racing Rioja 3+ goals
28%
River Ebro 1+ goals
66%
River Ebro 2+ goals
29%
River Ebro 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Racing Rioja (draw refunded)
72%
River Ebro (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Rioja at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

River Ebro away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Rioja attack 1.80 + River Ebro defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.86

River Ebro attack 1.09 + Racing Rioja defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Racing Rioja scores more
55%
level
23%
River Ebro scores more
22%

Racing Rioja at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Racing Rioja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Rioja vs River Ebro

Racing Rioja beat River Ebro 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Salvador in Logroño.