Rivadavia Lincoln 0–0 Belgrano Santa Rosa

Rivadavia Lincoln

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Belgrano Santa Rosa

9/11/2016

Torneo Federal A · Round 2Estadio El Coliseo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Rivadavia Lincoln56%

×Draw29%

Belgrano Santa Rosa15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rivadavia LincolnExpected goals in this matchBelgrano Santa Rosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.53

Rivadavia Lincoln

1.32

Belgrano Santa Rosa

0.53

Rivadavia Lincoln creates 149% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 24 away

0.90

creates per match

0.75

0.30

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Rivadavia Lincoln

0.90

Belgrano Santa Rosa

0.75

allows per match

Rivadavia Lincoln

0.30

Belgrano Santa Rosa

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rivadavia Lincoln+0.00on par

Belgrano Santa Rosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rivadavia Lincoln ↓

Belgrano Santa Rosa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Rivadavia Lincoln or draw

85%

Rivadavia Lincoln or Belgrano Santa Rosa

71%

Draw or Belgrano Santa Rosa

44%

Winning margin

Rivadavia Lincoln wins by 2+

27%

Belgrano Santa Rosa wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Rivadavia Lincoln 1+ goals

73%

Rivadavia Lincoln 2+ goals

38%

Rivadavia Lincoln 3+ goals

15%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 1+ goals

41%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 2+ goals

10%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Rivadavia Lincoln (draw refunded)

79%

Belgrano Santa Rosa (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rivadavia Lincoln at home — creates 0.90, concedes 0.30 · 10 matches

Belgrano Santa Rosa away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rivadavia Lincoln attack 0.90 + Belgrano Santa Rosa defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.32

Belgrano Santa Rosa attack 0.75 + Rivadavia Lincoln defence 0.30 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rivadavia Lincoln scores more

56%

level

29%

Belgrano Santa Rosa scores more

15%

Rivadavia Lincoln at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Rivadavia Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff