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Belgrano Santa Rosa vs Rivadavia Lincoln — Torneo Federal A 2018

Belgrano Santa Rosa
Belgrano Santa Rosa
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Rivadavia Lincoln
Rivadavia Lincoln
3/23/2017Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 3Estadio Nuevo Rancho Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Belgrano Santa Rosa62%
×Draw19%
Rivadavia Lincoln19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgrano Santa Rosa
2.33
Rivadavia Lincoln
1.22

Belgrano Santa Rosa creates 91% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 3 away

creates per match

Belgrano Santa Rosa
1.00
Rivadavia Lincoln
1.33

allows per match

Belgrano Santa Rosa
1.10
Rivadavia Lincoln
3.67

finishing

Belgrano Santa Rosa+0.00on par
Rivadavia Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Santa Rosa ↓

Rivadavia Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Belgrano Santa Rosa or draw
81%
Belgrano Santa Rosa or Rivadavia Lincoln
81%
Draw or Rivadavia Lincoln
38%

Winning margin

Belgrano Santa Rosa wins by 2+
40%
Rivadavia Lincoln wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Belgrano Santa Rosa 1+ goals
90%
Belgrano Santa Rosa 2+ goals
67%
Belgrano Santa Rosa 3+ goals
41%
Rivadavia Lincoln 1+ goals
70%
Rivadavia Lincoln 2+ goals
34%
Rivadavia Lincoln 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Santa Rosa (draw refunded)
77%
Rivadavia Lincoln (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Santa Rosa at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

Rivadavia Lincoln away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Santa Rosa attack 1.00 + Rivadavia Lincoln defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Rivadavia Lincoln attack 1.33 + Belgrano Santa Rosa defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Belgrano Santa Rosa scores more
62%
level
19%
Rivadavia Lincoln scores more
19%

Belgrano Santa Rosa at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Belgrano Santa Rosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Belgrano Santa Rosa 5–1 Rivadavia Lincoln

Belgrano Santa Rosa beat Rivadavia Lincoln 5-1 in Torneo Federal A on March 23, 2017.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Rancho Grande in Santa Rosa, Provincia La Pampa.