Ripensia Timisoara 0–1 Petrolul Ploiesti

Ripensia Timisoara

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Petrolul Ploiesti

9/7/2019

Liga II · Round 6Stadionul Dan Păltinișanu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Ripensia Timisoara27%

×Draw27%

Petrolul Ploiesti46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ripensia TimisoaraExpected goals in this matchPetrolul Ploiesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.41

Ripensia Timisoara

1.01

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.41

Petrolul Ploiesti creates 40% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 60 away

1.09

creates per match

1.57

1.24

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Ripensia Timisoara

1.09

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.57

allows per match

Ripensia Timisoara

1.24

Petrolul Ploiesti

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ripensia Timisoara ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ripensia Timisoara or draw

54%

Ripensia Timisoara or Petrolul Ploiesti

73%

Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti

73%

Winning margin

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+

10%

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals

64%

Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals

27%

Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals

8%

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals

76%

Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals

41%

Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)

37%

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ripensia Timisoara at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.09 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.01

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.57 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ripensia Timisoara scores more

27%

level

27%

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more

46%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff