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Petrolul Ploiesti vs Ripensia Timisoara — Liga II 2018

Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
CANC
09:00
Ripensia Timisoara
Ripensia Timisoara
3/15/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 25Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti54%
×Draw26%
Ripensia Timisoara20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.56
Ripensia Timisoara
0.85

Petrolul Ploiesti creates 84% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 70 away

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.63
Ripensia Timisoara
1.03

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
0.67
Ripensia Timisoara
1.49

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par
Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

Ripensia Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw
80%
Petrolul Ploiesti or Ripensia Timisoara
74%
Draw or Ripensia Timisoara
46%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
28%
Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
79%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
46%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
21%
Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals
57%
Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals
21%
Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
73%
Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.67 · 60 matches

Ripensia Timisoara away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.63 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.03 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
54%
level
26%
Ripensia Timisoara scores more
20%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Petrolul Ploiesti vs Ripensia Timisoara — Match Preview

Petrolul Ploiesti face Ripensia Timisoara on March 15, 2020 in this Liga II fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Petrolul Ploiesti host Ripensia Timisoara at Stadionul Ilie Oană.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.