Ripensia Timisoara 3–3 Dunarea Calarasi

Ripensia Timisoara

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Dunarea Calarasi

7/31/2021

Liga II · Round 1Stadionul Electrica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Ripensia Timisoara46%

×Draw27%

Dunarea Calarasi27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ripensia TimisoaraExpected goals in this matchDunarea Calarasi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.02

Ripensia Timisoara

1.41

Dunarea Calarasi

1.02

Ripensia Timisoara creates 38% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 40 away

1.09

creates per match

0.80

1.24

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Ripensia Timisoara

1.09

Dunarea Calarasi

0.80

allows per match

Ripensia Timisoara

1.24

Dunarea Calarasi

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ripensia Timisoara ↓

Dunarea Calarasi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ripensia Timisoara or draw

73%

Ripensia Timisoara or Dunarea Calarasi

73%

Draw or Dunarea Calarasi

54%

Winning margin

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+

22%

Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals

76%

Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals

41%

Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals

17%

Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals

64%

Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals

27%

Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)

63%

Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ripensia Timisoara at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

Dunarea Calarasi away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.73 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.09 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.41

Dunarea Calarasi attack 0.80 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ripensia Timisoara scores more

46%

level

27%

Dunarea Calarasi scores more

27%

Ripensia Timisoara at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ripensia Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff