Dunarea Calarasi 1–1 Ripensia Timisoara

Dunarea Calarasi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ripensia Timisoara

8/31/2019

Liga II · Round 5Stadionul Central Ion Comşa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Dunarea Calarasi35%

×Draw25%

Ripensia Timisoara40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunarea CalarasiExpected goals in this matchRipensia Timisoara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.46

Dunarea Calarasi

1.36

Ripensia Timisoara

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 70 away

1.24

creates per match

1.03

1.89

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Dunarea Calarasi

1.24

Ripensia Timisoara

1.03

allows per match

Dunarea Calarasi

1.89

Ripensia Timisoara

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunarea Calarasi ↓

Ripensia Timisoara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dunarea Calarasi or draw

60%

Dunarea Calarasi or Ripensia Timisoara

75%

Draw or Ripensia Timisoara

65%

Winning margin

Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+

16%

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals

74%

Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals

39%

Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals

16%

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals

77%

Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals

43%

Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)

47%

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunarea Calarasi at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

Ripensia Timisoara away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunarea Calarasi attack 1.24 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.03 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dunarea Calarasi scores more

35%

level

25%

Ripensia Timisoara scores more

40%

Ripensia Timisoara at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ripensia Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff