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Ripensia Timisoara vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti — Liga II 2018

Ripensia Timisoara
Ripensia Timisoara
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
3/12/2023Liga IILiga II · Round 19Stadionul Electrica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Ripensia Timisoara31%
×Draw27%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ripensia Timisoara
1.13
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.35

CSA Steaua Bucureşti creates 19% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 72 away

creates per match

Ripensia Timisoara
1.09
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.46

allows per match

Ripensia Timisoara
1.24
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.17

finishing

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par
CSA Steaua Bucureşti+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ripensia Timisoara ↓

CSA Steaua Bucureşti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ripensia Timisoara or draw
58%
Ripensia Timisoara or CSA Steaua Bucureşti
73%
Draw or CSA Steaua Bucureşti
69%

Winning margin

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+
13%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals
68%
Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals
31%
Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals
11%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1+ goals
74%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2+ goals
39%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)
43%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ripensia Timisoara at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

CSA Steaua Bucureşti away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.17 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.09 + CSA Steaua Bucureşti defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

CSA Steaua Bucureşti attack 1.46 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ripensia Timisoara scores more
31%
level
27%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti scores more
42%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CSA Steaua Bucureşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Ripensia Timisoara 0–2 CSA Steaua Bucureşti

CSA Steaua Bucureşti beat Ripensia Timisoara 2-0 in Liga II on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Electrica in Timişoara.