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CSA Steaua Bucureşti vs Ripensia Timisoara — Liga II 2018

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ripensia Timisoara
Ripensia Timisoara
8/29/2021Liga IILiga II · Round 5Stadionul Steaua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

CSA Steaua Bucureşti52%
×Draw25%
Ripensia Timisoara23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.62
Ripensia Timisoara
1.00

CSA Steaua Bucureşti creates 62% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 70 away

creates per match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.75
Ripensia Timisoara
1.03

allows per match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
0.97
Ripensia Timisoara
1.49

finishing

CSA Steaua Bucureşti+0.00on par
Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA Steaua Bucureşti ↓

Ripensia Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CSA Steaua Bucureşti or draw
77%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti or Ripensia Timisoara
75%
Draw or Ripensia Timisoara
48%

Winning margin

CSA Steaua Bucureşti wins by 2+
27%
Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1+ goals
80%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2+ goals
48%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 3+ goals
22%
Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals
63%
Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals
26%
Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CSA Steaua Bucureşti (draw refunded)
69%
Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.97 · 71 matches

Ripensia Timisoara away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti attack 1.75 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.62

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.03 + CSA Steaua Bucureşti defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CSA Steaua Bucureşti scores more
52%
level
25%
Ripensia Timisoara scores more
23%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CSA Steaua Bucureşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2–0 Ripensia Timisoara

CSA Steaua Bucureşti beat Ripensia Timisoara 2-0 in Liga II on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Steaua in București.