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Ripensia Timisoara vs CS Luceafarul Oradea — Liga II 2018

Ripensia Timisoara
Ripensia Timisoara
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CS Luceafarul Oradea
CS Luceafarul Oradea
12/8/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 21Stadionul Ciarda Roşie (Timişoara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ripensia Timisoara52%
×Draw24%
CS Luceafarul Oradea24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ripensia Timisoara
1.67
CS Luceafarul Oradea
1.04

Ripensia Timisoara creates 61% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ripensia Timisoara
1.09
CS Luceafarul Oradea
0.84

allows per match

Ripensia Timisoara
1.24
CS Luceafarul Oradea
2.26

finishing

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par
CS Luceafarul Oradea+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ripensia Timisoara ↓

CS Luceafarul Oradea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ripensia Timisoara or draw
76%
Ripensia Timisoara or CS Luceafarul Oradea
76%
Draw or CS Luceafarul Oradea
48%

Winning margin

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+
28%
CS Luceafarul Oradea wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals
81%
Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals
50%
Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals
23%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 1+ goals
65%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 2+ goals
28%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)
69%
CS Luceafarul Oradea (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ripensia Timisoara at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

CS Luceafarul Oradea away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.09 + CS Luceafarul Oradea defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.67

CS Luceafarul Oradea attack 0.84 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ripensia Timisoara scores more
52%
level
24%
CS Luceafarul Oradea scores more
24%

Ripensia Timisoara at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ripensia Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ripensia Timisoara vs CS Luceafarul Oradea

Ripensia Timisoara beat CS Luceafarul Oradea 2-0 in Liga II on December 8, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Ciarda Roşie (Timişoara).