CS Luceafarul Oradea 2–2 Ripensia Timisoara

CS Luceafarul Oradea

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Ripensia Timisoara

8/11/2018

Liga II · Round 2Baza Sportivă Luceafărul Felix (Sânmartin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CS Luceafarul Oradea58%

×Draw23%

Ripensia Timisoara19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS Luceafarul OradeaExpected goals in this matchRipensia Timisoara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.94

CS Luceafarul Oradea

1.83

Ripensia Timisoara

0.94

CS Luceafarul Oradea creates 95% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 70 away

2.16

creates per match

1.03

0.84

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

CS Luceafarul Oradea

2.16

Ripensia Timisoara

1.03

allows per match

CS Luceafarul Oradea

0.84

Ripensia Timisoara

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Luceafarul Oradea+0.00on par

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Luceafarul Oradea ↓

Ripensia Timisoara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

CS Luceafarul Oradea or draw

81%

CS Luceafarul Oradea or Ripensia Timisoara

77%

Draw or Ripensia Timisoara

42%

Winning margin

CS Luceafarul Oradea wins by 2+

34%

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CS Luceafarul Oradea 1+ goals

84%

CS Luceafarul Oradea 2+ goals

54%

CS Luceafarul Oradea 3+ goals

28%

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals

61%

Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals

24%

Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CS Luceafarul Oradea (draw refunded)

75%

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Luceafarul Oradea at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Ripensia Timisoara away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Luceafarul Oradea attack 2.16 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.03 + CS Luceafarul Oradea defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CS Luceafarul Oradea scores more

58%

level

23%

Ripensia Timisoara scores more

19%

CS Luceafarul Oradea at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CS Luceafarul Oradea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff