Ripensia Timisoara 0–2 Chindia Targoviste

Ripensia Timisoara

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Chindia Targoviste

M. Leca 71'

L. Mihai 12'

4/11/2019

Liga II · Round 29Stadionul Ciarda Roşie (Timişoara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Ripensia Timisoara32%

×Draw28%

Chindia Targoviste40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ripensia TimisoaraExpected goals in this matchChindia Targoviste

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.25

Ripensia Timisoara

1.07

Chindia Targoviste

1.25

Chindia Targoviste creates 17% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 60 away

1.09

creates per match

1.25

1.24

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Ripensia Timisoara

1.09

Chindia Targoviste

1.25

allows per match

Ripensia Timisoara

1.24

Chindia Targoviste

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ripensia Timisoara ↓

Chindia Targoviste →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ripensia Timisoara or draw

60%

Ripensia Timisoara or Chindia Targoviste

72%

Draw or Chindia Targoviste

68%

Winning margin

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+

12%

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals

66%

Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals

29%

Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals

9%

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals

71%

Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals

36%

Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)

44%

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ripensia Timisoara at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

Chindia Targoviste away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.09 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.07

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.25 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ripensia Timisoara scores more

32%

level

28%

Chindia Targoviste scores more

40%

Chindia Targoviste at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

46'

46'

57'

67'

71'

77'

80'

Ripensia

Chindia

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Pelici

46'▲I. Dumiter←▼V. Chera

67'▲A. Stoica←▼M. Gueye

80'▲A. Popa←▼B. Străuţ

Ripensia Timisoara substitutes

DumiterStoicaPopa

Manager: V. Moldovan

46'▲A. Şerban←▼A. Dudea

57'▲C. Neguţ←▼V. Raţă

77'▲M. Martac←▼C. Dinu

Chindia Targoviste substitutes

ŞerbanNeguţMartac

Liga II: Ripensia Timisoara 0–2 Chindia Targoviste

Chindia Targoviste beat Ripensia Timisoara 2-0 in Liga II on April 11, 2019.

Goals: L. Mihai (12'), M. Leca (71').

The match was played at Stadionul Ciarda Roşie (Timişoara).

Ripensia Timisoara vs Chindia Targoviste — Liga II 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga II: Ripensia Timisoara 0–2 Chindia Targoviste