Chindia Targoviste 4–2 Ripensia Timisoara

Chindia Targoviste

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ripensia Timisoara

10/6/2018

Liga II · Round 10Stadionul Eugen Popescu (Târgovişte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Chindia Targoviste53%

×Draw24%

Ripensia Timisoara23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chindia TargovisteExpected goals in this matchRipensia Timisoara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.02

Chindia Targoviste

1.71

Ripensia Timisoara

1.02

Chindia Targoviste creates 68% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 70 away

1.93

creates per match

1.03

1.02

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Chindia Targoviste

1.93

Ripensia Timisoara

1.03

allows per match

Chindia Targoviste

1.02

Ripensia Timisoara

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chindia Targoviste ↓

Ripensia Timisoara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Chindia Targoviste or draw

77%

Chindia Targoviste or Ripensia Timisoara

76%

Draw or Ripensia Timisoara

47%

Winning margin

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+

29%

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals

82%

Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals

51%

Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals

24%

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals

64%

Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals

27%

Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)

70%

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chindia Targoviste at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

Ripensia Timisoara away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.93 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.03 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chindia Targoviste scores more

53%

level

24%

Ripensia Timisoara scores more

23%

Chindia Targoviste at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff