Ripensia Timisoara 1–1 Arges Pitesti

Ripensia Timisoara

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Arges Pitesti

11/2/2018

Liga II · Round 15Stadionul Dan Păltinișanu (Timişoara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Ripensia Timisoara32%

×Draw29%

Arges Pitesti39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ripensia TimisoaraExpected goals in this matchArges Pitesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.14

Ripensia Timisoara

1.01

Arges Pitesti

1.14

Arges Pitesti creates 13% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 62 away

1.09

creates per match

1.03

1.24

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Ripensia Timisoara

1.09

Arges Pitesti

1.03

allows per match

Ripensia Timisoara

1.24

Arges Pitesti

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ripensia Timisoara ↓

Arges Pitesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ripensia Timisoara or draw

61%

Ripensia Timisoara or Arges Pitesti

71%

Draw or Arges Pitesti

68%

Winning margin

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+

12%

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals

64%

Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals

27%

Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals

8%

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

68%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

32%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)

45%

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ripensia Timisoara at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.92 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.09 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.01

Arges Pitesti attack 1.03 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ripensia Timisoara scores more

32%

level

29%

Arges Pitesti scores more

39%

Arges Pitesti at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff