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Arges Pitesti vs Ripensia Timisoara — Liga II 2018

Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ripensia Timisoara
Ripensia Timisoara
5/10/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 34Stadionul Municipal Nicolae Dobrin (Piteşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Arges Pitesti53%
×Draw26%
Ripensia Timisoara21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arges Pitesti
1.55
Ripensia Timisoara
0.88

Arges Pitesti creates 76% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 70 away

creates per match

Arges Pitesti
1.61
Ripensia Timisoara
1.03

allows per match

Arges Pitesti
0.73
Ripensia Timisoara
1.49

finishing

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par
Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

Ripensia Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw
79%
Arges Pitesti or Ripensia Timisoara
74%
Draw or Ripensia Timisoara
47%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
28%
Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
79%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
46%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
20%
Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals
59%
Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals
22%
Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
71%
Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

Ripensia Timisoara away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.61 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.55

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.03 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more
53%
level
26%
Ripensia Timisoara scores more
21%

Arges Pitesti at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Arges Pitesti 2–1 Ripensia Timisoara

Arges Pitesti beat Ripensia Timisoara 2-1 in Liga II on May 10, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Nicolae Dobrin (Piteşti).