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Rio Preto W vs Ponte Preta W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Rio Preto W
Rio Preto W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ponte Preta W
Ponte Preta W
5/16/2018Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP B - Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rio Preto W74%
×Draw18%
Ponte Preta W9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Preto W
2.16
Ponte Preta W
0.58

Rio Preto W creates 272% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

creates per match

Rio Preto W
2.00
Ponte Preta W
0.59

allows per match

Rio Preto W
0.57
Ponte Preta W
2.32

finishing

Rio Preto W+0.00on par
Ponte Preta W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Preto W ↓

Ponte Preta W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rio Preto W or draw
91%
Rio Preto W or Ponte Preta W
82%
Draw or Ponte Preta W
26%

Winning margin

Rio Preto W wins by 2+
49%
Ponte Preta W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Rio Preto W 1+ goals
88%
Rio Preto W 2+ goals
63%
Rio Preto W 3+ goals
36%
Ponte Preta W 1+ goals
44%
Ponte Preta W 2+ goals
12%
Ponte Preta W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Rio Preto W (draw refunded)
90%
Ponte Preta W (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Preto W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Ponte Preta W away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Preto W attack 2.00 + Ponte Preta W defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.16

Ponte Preta W attack 0.59 + Rio Preto W defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Rio Preto W scores more
74%
level
18%
Ponte Preta W scores more
9%

Rio Preto W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Rio Preto W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Rio Preto W 1–1 Ponte Preta W

Rio Preto W and Ponte Preta W drew 1-1 in Brasileiro Women on May 16, 2018.