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Ponte Preta W vs Rio Preto W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Ponte Preta W
Ponte Preta W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rio Preto W
Rio Preto W
7/18/2018Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP B - Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ponte Preta W20%
×Draw23%
Rio Preto W57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponte Preta W
1.00
Rio Preto W
1.85

Rio Preto W creates 85% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 7 away

creates per match

Ponte Preta W
1.14
Rio Preto W
1.43

allows per match

Ponte Preta W
2.27
Rio Preto W
0.86

finishing

Ponte Preta W+0.00on par
Rio Preto W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta W ↓

Rio Preto W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ponte Preta W or draw
43%
Ponte Preta W or Rio Preto W
77%
Draw or Rio Preto W
80%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta W wins by 2+
7%
Rio Preto W wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Ponte Preta W 1+ goals
63%
Ponte Preta W 2+ goals
26%
Ponte Preta W 3+ goals
8%
Rio Preto W 1+ goals
84%
Rio Preto W 2+ goals
55%
Rio Preto W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta W (draw refunded)
26%
Rio Preto W (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

Rio Preto W away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta W attack 1.14 + Rio Preto W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.00

Rio Preto W attack 1.43 + Ponte Preta W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ponte Preta W scores more
20%
level
23%
Rio Preto W scores more
57%

Rio Preto W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Rio Preto W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Ponte Preta W 0–2 Rio Preto W

Rio Preto W beat Ponte Preta W 2-0 in Brasileiro Women on July 18, 2018.