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Rio Grande Valley vs Reno 1868 — USL Championship 2018

Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Reno 1868
Reno 1868
8/4/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 39H-E-B Park (Edinburg, Texas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Rio Grande Valley33%
×Draw25%
Reno 186842%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Grande Valley
1.32
Reno 1868
1.52

Reno 1868 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 44 away

creates per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.44
Reno 1868
1.84

allows per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.21
Reno 1868
1.20

finishing

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par
Reno 1868+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Grande Valley ↓

Reno 1868 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rio Grande Valley or draw
58%
Rio Grande Valley or Reno 1868
75%
Draw or Reno 1868
67%

Winning margin

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
14%
Reno 1868 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
73%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
38%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
15%
Reno 1868 1+ goals
78%
Reno 1868 2+ goals
45%
Reno 1868 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
44%
Reno 1868 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Grande Valley at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Reno 1868 away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.44 + Reno 1868 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Reno 1868 attack 1.84 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rio Grande Valley scores more
33%
level
25%
Reno 1868 scores more
42%

Reno 1868 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Reno 1868 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rio Grande Valley vs Reno 1868

Reno 1868 beat Rio Grande Valley 2-1 in USL Championship on August 4, 2019.

The match was played at H-E-B Park (Edinburg, Texas).