Reno 1868 4–0 Rio Grande Valley: Result & Stats

Reno 1868

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Rio Grande Valley

7/4/2019

USL Championship · Round 31Aces Ballpark (Reno, Nevada)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Reno 186851%

×Draw22%

Rio Grande Valley27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Reno 1868Expected goals in this matchRio Grande Valley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.32

Reno 1868

1.90

Rio Grande Valley

1.32

Reno 1868 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 93 away

2.13

creates per match

1.25

1.40

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Reno 1868

2.13

Rio Grande Valley

1.25

allows per match

Reno 1868

1.40

Rio Grande Valley

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reno 1868+0.00on par

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reno 1868 ↓

Rio Grande Valley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Reno 1868 or draw

73%

Reno 1868 or Rio Grande Valley

78%

Draw or Rio Grande Valley

49%

Winning margin

Reno 1868 wins by 2+

29%

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Reno 1868 1+ goals

85%

Reno 1868 2+ goals

56%

Reno 1868 3+ goals

29%

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals

73%

Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals

38%

Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Reno 1868 (draw refunded)

66%

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reno 1868 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reno 1868 attack 2.13 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.90

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.25 + Reno 1868 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Reno 1868 scores more

51%

level

22%

Rio Grande Valley scores more

27%

Reno 1868 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Reno 1868 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff