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Rio Grande Valley vs Portland Timbers II — USL Championship 2018

Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Portland Timbers II
Portland Timbers II
10/19/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 61H-E-B Park (Edinburg, Texas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Rio Grande Valley47%
×Draw24%
Portland Timbers II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Grande Valley
1.72
Portland Timbers II
1.32

Rio Grande Valley creates 30% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 43 away

creates per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.44
Portland Timbers II
1.44

allows per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.21
Portland Timbers II
2.00

finishing

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par
Portland Timbers II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Grande Valley ↓

Portland Timbers II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rio Grande Valley or draw
70%
Rio Grande Valley or Portland Timbers II
76%
Draw or Portland Timbers II
53%

Winning margin

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
25%
Portland Timbers II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
82%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
51%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
25%
Portland Timbers II 1+ goals
73%
Portland Timbers II 2+ goals
38%
Portland Timbers II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
61%
Portland Timbers II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Grande Valley at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Portland Timbers II away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.44 + Portland Timbers II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Portland Timbers II attack 1.44 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rio Grande Valley scores more
47%
level
24%
Portland Timbers II scores more
30%

Rio Grande Valley at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rio Grande Valley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rio Grande Valley 2 – 1 Portland Timbers II

Rio Grande Valley beat Portland Timbers II 2-1 in USL Championship on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at H-E-B Park (Edinburg, Texas).