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Portland Timbers II vs Rio Grande Valley — USL Championship 2018

Portland Timbers II
Portland Timbers II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
4/19/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 9Harry A. Merlo Field (Portland, Oregon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Portland Timbers II41%
×Draw23%
Rio Grande Valley36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Timbers II
1.78
Rio Grande Valley
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 93 away

creates per match

Portland Timbers II
1.91
Rio Grande Valley
1.25

allows per match

Portland Timbers II
2.09
Rio Grande Valley
1.66

finishing

Portland Timbers II+0.00on par
Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers II ↓

Rio Grande Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Portland Timbers II or draw
64%
Portland Timbers II or Rio Grande Valley
77%
Draw or Rio Grande Valley
59%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers II wins by 2+
21%
Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Portland Timbers II 1+ goals
83%
Portland Timbers II 2+ goals
53%
Portland Timbers II 3+ goals
26%
Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
81%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
50%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers II (draw refunded)
53%
Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers II at home — creates 1.91, concedes 2.09 · 43 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers II attack 1.91 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.78

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.25 + Portland Timbers II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Portland Timbers II scores more
41%
level
23%
Rio Grande Valley scores more
36%

Portland Timbers II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Portland Timbers II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portland Timbers II vs Rio Grande Valley

Portland Timbers II beat Rio Grande Valley 3-2 in USL Championship on April 19, 2018.

The match was played at Harry A. Merlo Field (Portland, Oregon).